Historical Context: Ethiopia’s Landlocked Status

Ethiopia’s historical maritime ambitions date back to the 19th century. The loss of its coastal territories, particularly Eritrea, part of Ethiopia until its independence in 1993, significantly constrained Ethiopia’s access to international trade routes. Before the Eritrean-Ethiopian War of 1998-2000, Ethiopia had used Eritrean ports like Massawa and Assab as vital gateways for trade and military access to the outside world. However, after the war and Eritrea’s subsequent independence, Ethiopia became landlocked entirely, with its regional connectivity dependent on neighbours and foreign agreements.

Ethiopia’s inability to access seaports directly isolated it economically and restricted its geopolitical manoeuvrability. This maritime vacuum has significantly impacted Ethiopia’s economic development, trade capacity, and regional influence, making access to ports a critical issue for the country’s survival and growth.

The Quest for Maritime Access: Ethiopia’s Diplomatic Maneuvering

In response to its landlocked status, Ethiopia has historically pursued diplomatic solutions to gain access to ports in neighbouring countries. The nation’s primary strategy has been negotiating port access agreements with its neighbouring states, Djibouti, Somalia, and Sudan.

1. Djibouti: Ethiopia’s Lifeline

Djibouti, a small but strategically important country on the Red Sea, has become Ethiopia’s most vital maritime gateway. Over 90% of Ethiopia’s international trade, including imports and exports, flows through the Port of Djibouti, making it the landlocked nation’s lifeline. The close relationship between Ethiopia and Djibouti has resulted in robust economic and military ties. Ethiopia has invested heavily in infrastructure in Djibouti, including roads, railways, and port expansion projects, which serve Ethiopian and regional interests.

In recent years, Ethiopia’s dependency on Djibouti has increased, with both countries working closely to ensure that the port’s capacity can meet the growing demands of the Ethiopian economy. This strategic dependency has also allowed Ethiopia to influence Djibouti’s political and economic stability significantly. For Djibouti, hosting Ethiopia’s trade flows has made it a key player in regional geopolitics, bringing in substantial revenue and foreign investment.

2. Alternative Routes: Somalia and Sudan

While Djibouti remains Ethiopia’s primary maritime outlet, the country has also sought to expand its access to other regional ports. Somalia, with its long coastline along the Indian Ocean, has been seen as a potential alternative. However, political instability and ongoing conflicts, particularly in southern Somalia, have limited Ethiopia’s ability to establish secure and functional trade routes through Somali ports.

Ethiopia has also explored port access through Sudan, specifically the Port of Sudan. Sudan offers a connection to the Red Sea, and Ethiopia has looked into expanding ties with Sudan to diversify its access to maritime routes. However, the political instability and internal conflicts within Sudan, especially after the 2023 coup, have made this option uncertain and challenging.

Strategic Considerations in the Horn of Africa

Ethiopia’s quest for maritime access is not just a matter of economic importance. Still, it also plays a central role in the security and strategic dynamics of the Horn of Africa. The Horn has long been a region of intense geopolitical competition due to its proximity to major international trade routes, including the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which links the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and the Arabian Sea.

Geopolitical Rivalries and External Powers

The Horn of Africa has become a region of increasing interest for global and regional powers, including the United States, China, Russia, the Gulf States, and India. The strategic location of Djibouti, in particular, has made it the site of foreign military bases, with countries like the U.S., France, China, and Saudi Arabia all establishing a presence.

As a landlocked country, Ethiopia has been deeply involved in these geopolitical dynamics, seeking to strengthen its alliances with regional powers while protecting its trade routes. Its relationships with Djibouti, Sudan, and Somalia are pivotal in determining its economic and security outlook. Ethiopia’s military power and regional influence make it a key player in the Horn of Africa’s broader security framework, particularly in countering terrorism and instability emanating from Somalia and the wider Sahel region.

The Role of Eritrea: A Complicated Relationship

Eritrea’s role in Ethiopia’s maritime access is also of significant importance. Although relations between the two nations were long defined by hostility, the 2018 peace agreement between Ethiopia and Eritrea raised hopes of a new phase of cooperation. Eritrea controls critical Red Sea ports such as Massawa and Assab, which could, in theory, offer Ethiopia new outlets for trade.

However, the full potential of this opportunity has yet to be realized. Eritrea’s political and economic isolation, combined with Ethiopia’s complex internal and external priorities, means that fully integrating Eritrean ports into Ethiopia’s economic activities remains a work in progress. Further diplomatic engagements will be necessary to determine how, or if, the two nations can unlock the full potential of this maritime access.

The Future of Ethiopia’s Maritime Access: Opportunities and Challenges

Ethiopia’s maritime access and its role within the Horn of Africa will remain critical to its economic growth and regional stability. Several opportunities exist for Ethiopia to expand its options and diversify its access to the sea:

Increased Investment in Regional Infrastructure: By continuing to develop infrastructure projects with Djibouti, Sudan, and possibly Somalia, Ethiopia can enhance its connectivity and ensure that it is not overly reliant on a single country.

Strategic Alliances: Given the growing involvement of external powers in the Horn of Africa, Ethiopia has the opportunity to leverage its strategic position to secure more favorable trade and security agreements.

Strengthening Regional Cooperation: Ethiopia’s relationship with Eritrea, while still in its early stages of normalization, offers the potential for greater maritime access via Eritrean ports. Continued diplomatic efforts could bring long-term benefits to both nations.

However, significant challenges remain. Political instability in the Horn, the threat of conflict and extremism, as well as competition from rival powers, will continue to impact Ethiopia’s access to vital maritime trade routes. Ethiopia’s economic future will hinge on how well it navigates these challenges while balancing its own interests with those of its neighbors and global powers.

Conclusion

Ethiopia’s struggle for maritime access is a critical issue not only for the country’s economic well-being but also for regional security in the Horn of Africa. While the country has made strides in negotiating access through Djibouti and exploring new routes, the strategic significance of the region ensures that Ethiopia’s maritime ambitions will continue to shape the geopolitical landscape of the Horn. As Ethiopia navigates these complex dynamics, it will be essential for it to balance diplomacy, regional cooperation, and internal stability to achieve sustained economic growth and maintain a stable position in the Horn of Africa.